Application 3 · Investment · Module 4

Impact FrameworkWhat the profile measures

Thirteen criteria, applied to every model in the same order. This module defines what each one asks, how it is read, and how it is commonly misread — then sets out where the criteria pull against one another. Those tensions are the reason there is no single score.

13Criteria
2Pillars
7Tensions mapped
0Weightings applied
Two pillars, and a set of conditions

Not three pillars. Two, plus what has to be true

Economic and social impact are read as parallel pillars. Resource stewardship is not treated as a third, because it is not an outcome the model produces — it is a condition on the model working at all. A mechanism that degrades its water source does not score poorly on stewardship; it stops functioning.

Pillar 1

Economic impact

National food security and import substitution. What the model removes from the import bill, how reliably, and how much private development it draws in.

EC1 – EC7 · seven criteria
Pillar 2

Social impact

Who reaches the land, who works it, and what happens to the communities already there. Employment is counted here, as livelihood.

SC1 – SC6 · six criteria
Conditions, not a pillar

Resource stewardship

Water incentive alignment, tenure term against supply horizon, and enforcement. Answered inside each group's key success factors.

3 questions · asked of every group
Why stewardship sits where it does

A degraded aquifer is not a low score. It is the end of the model

Placing stewardship as a third scored pillar would allow it to be offset — strong economic and social readings compensating for a weak resource reading. That is exactly the arithmetic the Kingdom's own experience rules out: the wheat programme delivered on volume and on participation, and ended anyway, because the source failed.

Treating stewardship as a condition means it is not traded against anything. A model either satisfies it or is unavailable on that area. This mirrors the evaluation's own treatment of a terminal class, where a limitation that cannot be addressed closes the hectare rather than lowering its rating.

Anatomy of a criterion answer

Every answer has the same two parts, and neither is a number. What distinguishes this framework from a scored one is that the answer says what the group does, in its own terms, rather than placing it on a scale against the others.

EC7 Capital mobilised Recorded at tender — commitments are published, so the figure exists rather than being estimated. 1 · THE CRITERION Same code, same position, every model 2 · THE READING One or two sentences describing what the group does. Never a value on a scale NO SCORE · NO WEIGHT · NO TOTAL — THIRTEEN ANSWERS STAND SEPARATELY
Definition, reading, and misreading

Thirteen criteria, in full

Each entry states what the criterion asks, what moves it, how it should be read, and the specific way it tends to be read wrongly. Worked examples built from published national figures sit in the Model Catalogue and are not repeated here, so that a corrected figure has one home rather than two.

Where the numbers live Every criterion carries a worked example computed from published figures. Those examples are held in the Model Catalogue, Criteria tab — one authoritative copy, so a revised figure propagates from a single place.
The reason there is no total

Where the criteria pull against each other

These are not defects in the framework. They are the real structure of the decision: seven places where improving one reading reliably degrades another. A composite score would resolve each of them silently, by whatever weighting was chosen — and the Ministry would never see that a choice had been made.

How to use this section A tension does not make a model unsuitable. It identifies what a model gives up, and points at the design decision that can moderate it. Select the cards to open the detail.
What the tensions add up to

No model is strong on everything, and none is weak on everything

Read across the seven, a pattern emerges: mechanisms that move fastest and draw the most capital concentrate access, and mechanisms that widen access carry the state's liability for longer. That is not a flaw in any particular instrument — it is the shape of the choice.

Which side of it the Kingdom takes is a matter of policy. This framework's only job is to make sure the trade is visible when it is made.